By Vincent Wigmans
In 2008, the aviation world witnessed the fall of a very light jet air taxi bubble. Back then, operators crafted ambitious business plans that envisioned fleets of 200 Cessna Citation Mustangs to meet client demand. The market, however, failed to materialize as expected, leaving behind valuable lessons that seem eerily relevant today. Fast forward to 2025, and a new wave of innovation has taken center stage as in passenger drones (eVTOLs) and flying cars. They promise a future akin to the Jetsons, but are these futuristic visions built on solid ground or heading for a similar burst?
The Allure of Flying Cars and Drones
Passenger drones and flying cars represent a tantalizing promise of a new kind of mobility. They aim to bypass congested roads, shrink travel times, and offer unparalleled convenience. Many companies worldwide are racing to develop these technologies, supported by billions of dollars in investments. Yet, beneath the surface, cracks are already beginning to show.
The similarities to the 2008 air taxi bubble are hard to ignore. Then, as now, lofty projections, underestimations of regulatory and operational complexities, and an over-reliance on investor enthusiasm are creating a shaky foundation.
The Investor Conundrum
One of the most concerning trends is the influx of investments into these ventures without thorough due diligence. Aviation is a highly regulated industry, and neglecting this reality can be disastrous. The challenges go beyond just regulations, also environmental concerns, infrastructure demands, and societal acceptance must all be addressed. Without a clear understanding of these hurdles, investments can quickly turn into losses.
Recent examples like Volocopter filing for insolvency after burning through $579 million and Lilium facing bankruptcy after spending $1 billion highlight the risks. While risk is inherent in innovation, entering the aviation sector without proper groundwork is a recipe for failure.
Ignoring the Basics: Design Before Demand
A recurring mistake among companies in this space is prioritizing design development over understanding client needs. Having operated a European air taxi service with 15 Single Engine Cirrus SR22 aircraft since 2009, the key takeaway from our clients has always been clear: time-saving is paramount. Unfortunately, many current developments fail to deliver meaningful time savings.
Take flying cars as an example. Despite their name, they still require significant preparation: obtaining a pilot license, passing a medical check, preparing a flight plan, and accessing an airport. The idea of a seamless transition from road to air remains more fantasy than reality, especially in densely populated and overregulated Europe. Imagine being stuck in traffic in the Amsterdam area and needing to get to Eindhoven. The notion of driving to Schiphol Airport, file a flight plan, clearing platform security with your flying car, unfold plane and taking off is not a time-saver.
Regulatory Realities
European aviation regulations pose additional hurdles. Unlike some parts of the world, you can’t just take off from your driveway or a field. Even helicopters movements are limited in some European countries to a maximum of 12 days per year (max 48 movements) from a site that is not an airport. And then the operator even needs to apply for an exemption. Urban air mobility dreams often fail to consider such regulatory constraints.
Moreover, the infrastructure to support these innovations is lacking. Airports, especially the controlled ones in Europe, are heavily regulated spaces. I recall an incident at Rotterdam The Hague Airport involving a client who wanted to take his car airside and load it into his Short SC7 Skyvan. The logistical and bureaucratic challenges were interesting so to say, showcasing the operational complexities such innovations would face.
The Human Factor
Beyond technology and regulations, the mindset of potential users must change. Driverless cars still face significant public skepticism; expecting people to embrace pilotless drones is a leap of faith. Trust in technology takes time to build, and the aviation industry leaves little room for error.
A Call for Caution
The innovations in eVTOLs and flying cars are impressive, but the proliferation of companies working on similar concepts dilutes resources and risks over-saturating the market. Investors must tread carefully, armed with knowledge about aviation’s unique challenges.
Without significant advancements in infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and public perception, the dream of flying cars and passenger drones may remain limited, especially in Europe. For now, the industry must focus less on flashy designs and more on creating practical, scalable, and time-saving solutions. Otherwise, it risks repeating the mistakes of the 2008 air taxi bubble, and bursting under the weight of its own ambitions.